NEED FOR POWER.
Water & Power Development Authority (WAPDA), the largest utility company in Pakistan, provides services to the entire country except Karachi. Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC) supplies Karachi with electricity. WAPDA's existing total installed power capacity is 17,286 MW, of which Hydel resources account for 6,463 MW, WAPDA’s own thermal power plants account for 4,900 MW, and the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission provides 325 MW. The rest of WAPDAs power, 5,598 MW, is provided by IPPs (Independent Power Producers). KESC owns its entire 1,756 MW capacity in the form of thermal plants. KESC also has access to an additional 137 MW from Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP) and 260 MW from IPPs. An increase in industrialization is accompanied by an increase in electricity demand. The non-availability of natural resources for expansion of the power sector has widened the gap between demand and supply, which has resulted in excessive and frequent load shedding. The shortfall in supply could be the major cause for stunted growth in the industrial sector in Pakistan. At the moment industrial units are facing a dichotomous situation where market forces demand increased production, especially of consumer products, while the utility infrastructure fails to keep pace with this requirement. This dilemma is typical for organizations which see the potential for enhancing the market share of their products but are facing constraints in the reliability and supply of electricity.
The demand for electricity has continued to increase by out pacing the growth rate of the economy. At a 6% growth rate, a power shortage was likely to appear in 2006 which did and forced the utilities to go for load-shedding. Estimated shortfall is 4,000. By the year 2010, the shortfall will have reached 5,000 MW. If any of the projects planned for 2006 are not implemented there will be enormous pressure on the electrical infrastructure of the country.
CONVENTIONAL SOURCES OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN PAKISTAN.
Electricity is generated in Pakistan through a number of sources including hydel power, coal, gas, oil and nuclear power. Following graph depicts the share of each source in the total energy mix during the FY 2004 – 05.
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associated with traditional methods of power production, there has been a massive increase in the demand for alternate sources of energy generation the world over.
Pakistan, being the fastest growing economy in Asia, is following this example and is aggressively pursuing the adoption of alternate energy to meet the growing needs of the industrial sector.
For this purpose the Government, in May 2003, established the Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) with a mandate to create a policy and development framework for the introduction of renewable energy technologies in Pakistan. One of the key objectives in the establishment of the AEDB was for it to act as a one-window facilitator for the establishment and promotion of renewable energy projects based on wind, solar, and bio gas. Their mandate also included other non-conventional sources such as micro hydel, fuel cells, tidal, ocean and biomass etc..
WIND
After analyzing wind date gathered by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (MET Department), the AEDB has identified a coastal belt in Sindh for the development of wind energy projects. This ‘wind corridor’ stretches from Keti Bandar to Gharo and is capable of producing 50,000 MW of electricity. More than sixty companies have already.
applied for wind power LOIs, equaling more than 3000 MW. Apart from about 30 wind mills that have been installed on an experimental basis for pumping water in different parts of Sindh and Balochistan, no wind farms have been set up in Pakistan up to this point. A few experimental micro turbines have also been set up in different parts of the country.
SOLAR
Pakistan, being on the Sun Belt, is highly suitable for generation of electricity through solar. Global irradiation falling on the horizontal surface is about 1,800-2,200 kWh/m2 per year. At current efficiency levels of 18% for solar modules this is sufficient to produce 0.320 to 0.400 MWh of electricity per m2 per year (Source: German National Meteorological Service - DWD). Balochistan province is particularly rich in solar energy, with annual mean sunshine duration of 8 - 8.5 hours a day. It is estimated that this amount of energy is enough to electrify 40,000 villages. In Pakistan, during the early 80s, about 18 stations were installed for village electrification with an installed capacity of 440 kW. However, due to the lack of technical expertise and follow up, these systems could not perform in the long term. Recognizing this problem, the Pakistan Council of Renewable Energy Technology (PCRET) has developed know-how and the technology to fabricate solar panel modules and systems. Solar energy is currently being utilized in Pakistan on a standalone basis in rural telephone exchanges, repeater stations, highway emergency telephones, and refrigeration for vaccines and medicines.
BIOGAS
Pakistan, being an agricultural country, produces sufficient animal waste and, consequently, bio gas. The Government, realizing this potential, started a comprehensive scheme in 1974 and had commissioned 4,137 bio gas units by the end of 1987 throughout
Pakistan. Unfortunately, after the withdrawal of Government support, these projects did not progress any further till 1990. Subsequently, nearly 1,700 small bio gas units were installed in remote areas of the country, which are running quite successfully.
HYDRO
Hydel energy is the cheapest source of electricity generation amongst all sources. Currently, hydel electricity accounts for 30% of the total electricity produced in Pakistan. Pakistan's total hydel power generation potential is about 46,000 MW. However, Pakistan has not been able to exploit this potential, which is mainly due to the lack of proper transmission infrastructure at sites suitable for hydel power generation, paucity of funds, and lack of national consensus over development and execution of large hydel projects. Hydel projects also have an exceptionally long gestational period, which make them particularly unsuited to short term needs. Furthermore, the power generation capacity of hydel projects is seasonal and is highly dependent upon the availability of sufficient water in the reservoirs, resulting in fall of electricity generation during times of low rain or a fall in in the water level of associated rivers. This has contributed to regular nationwide load shedding and a loss of industrial production.
The transmission cost of hydel electricity is much higher as a network of transmission lines is required to be laid down for delivering electricity produced to areas which require it which are typically quite far from the location of the hydal plant itself.
ANALYSIS OF CURRENT DEMAND AND SUPPLY SCENARIO
DEMAND OF ELECTRICITY
Pakistan’s economy is experiencing significant structural changes since 1999. Over the next five years, 7-8 percent GDP growth per annum is targeted, which will result in a commensurate rise in energy use. Keeping in view the sustained growth in all sectors of the economy in the coming years, it is expected that future demand for electricity will rise from the current 15,500MW to 21,500 MW by the year 2010. This is a rise of approximately 7.9% for each of the next five years. Please refer to the table below for sector-wise power demand (2005-10).
As shown in the table above, the demand for electricity from the industrial sector, given current growth trends, is going to rise substantially over the next five years. There has also been a rapid increase in the number of electricity consumers in recent years. This is due primarily to rapid urbanization and also the extension of the national grid to include an increased number of rural areas. In fact, village electrification has been a central part of the governments agenda. As of March 2005, the total number of electricity consumers in Pakistan is 14.7 Million. This is a six percent increase over the same time last year where there were 13.9 million users.
MEGA WIND POWER POTENTIAL
Pakistan’s coastal belt, stretching from Gharo to Keti Bandar in the province of Sindh, is 60 km wide and 180 km long (upto Hyderabad). This corridor has the potential to generate approximately 50,000 MW of electricity through wind energy. In addition, there are other wind sites available in coastal areas of Balochistan and some Northern Areas. Technically the grid can take up to 30% - 40% of wind energy.
MICRO WIND POWER POTENTIAL
Most of the remote villages in the South can be electrified through micro wind turbines. More than 5,000 villages can be electrified through wind energy in Sindh, Balochistan and the Northern Areas.
SOLAR ENERGY POTENTIAL
Pakistan’s solar resource has been calculated at 800 million MW. Pakistan, being in the Sun Belt, is ideally located to take advantage of solar energy technologies. This energy source is abundantly available in the country. Solar energy intensity is approximately 1800-2200 kWh per square meter in Pakistan. Balochistan in particular is rich in solar energy. It has an average global insulation of 19 – 20 MJ/m2 per day with annual mean sunshine duration of 8 to 8.5 hours. These values are among the highest in the world. For daily global radiation up to 23 MJ/m2, 24 (80%) consecutive days are available in this area. Such conditions are ideal for Photo Voltaic and other solar energy applications. It is calculated that approximately 40,000 remote villages can be electrified through solar energy.
MICRO HYDRO POTENTIAL
The Northern part of the country is rich with hydro power resources. There are a large number of sites in this high terrain, where natural and manageable water falls are abundantly available. The recoverable potential in micro hydro power upto 100 KW is roughly estimated to be 300 MW on perennial waterfalls in Northern Pakistan. Additionally, there is enormous potential for electricity generation in the natural gradients found in the canal network particularly in Punjab, where low head high discharge exists on many canals. More than 300 sites have been identified with nearly 350 MW of power potential. .
The Government of Pakistan has initiated an aggressive program to encourage the induction of renewable energy as a mainstream source for power generation. The Alternate Energy Development Board has identified significant sources of renewable energy in geographic areas which have a sustainable potential for high year round electricity generation. As an initial thrust, the Keti Bunder – Gharo corridor near Karachi has been identified as a very viable location for Wind Farms supplying the Utility Companies. National Energy Security Action Plan has set a target of 3.5% generation from renewable sources by 2015. This translates into a target generation of 1,680 MW of which major portion will be Wind Powered electricity generation. The figure below provides an overview of the consistent pattern of the wind regime in the Keti Bunder – Gharo area. Constant and sustained wind resource is measured and available in this area.
The development of wind generation projects supports the environmental objectives of the Government of Pakistan by reducing dependence on fuels for thermal power generation, increasing diversity in Pakistan’s electricity generation mix, and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through the avoidance of thermal power generation. By reducing Pakistan’s dependence on fossil fuels for power production, the country becomes less susceptible to external forces that can limit the import of fuel. The country also needs to spend less of its essential foreign exchange reserves for energy production.